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Aston Villa vs Manchester City Predictions: EPL Matchweek 6 Odds & Best Bets

11:10 EAT 02/09/2022
Haaland Alvarez Manchester City 2022-23
The reigning EPL champions are big favourites to claim another three points when they visit the city of Birmingham this weekend

On the back end of a double-fixture Premier League matchweek, Aston Villa hosts Manchester City on Saturday, Sept. 3, at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Earlier this week, City squashed newly promoted Nottingham Forest 6-0 at Etihad Stadium. The Villans hung with EPL table-topper Arsenal but eventually fell 2-1.

Aston Villa will attempt to contain Man City striker Erling Haaland.

The game-breaking wunderkind is treating the Premier League like a pickup game, compiling a record-setting nine goals in his first five EPL games. That run includes potting a hat trick in two straight matches (one in the first 38 minutes vs Nottingham Forest).

The last time these two clubs met, Man City was completing an EPL-title-clinching 3-2 comeback win on their turf on the final day this past season. Now, City resides in second place, with Aston Villa dropping into the relegation zone at 19th.

Will Aston Villa keep this next league clash close? Read on for our full best Aston Villa vs Man City betting tips.

Tim Heaney’s 2022-2023 EPL betting record: 0-2 (-3 units)

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Odds

  • 3-Way Handicap: Aston Villa (+700) | Draw (+400) | Manchester City (-275)
  • Draw No Bet: Aston Villa ( +500) | Manchester City (-900)
  • Over/Under Goals: Over 3.5 (+125) | Under 3.5 (-175)

Aston Villa vs Manchester City odds are current as of Thursday, Sept. 1, from BetMGM Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted.

Man City’s Draw Not Bet odds will be horrifically skewed in matchups like these, so any MCFC line faders should look to the three-way handicap instead.

At Haaland’s current pace (a staggering 1.52 xG per 90 minutes), Man City match Overs look like auto-bets.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Betting Tips

Man City has not lost to Aston Villa in the past 10 meetings

Using a “Last 10 meetings” often comes with some caveats. Still, given how City has dominated Aston Villa predating the Pep Guardiola era, it’s safe to feel confident about this trend continuing.

Aston Villa has possessed well at home

The Villans rank fifth in home possession rate (57.7%), so they could work to keep the ball away from a suddenly aggressive City team that’s trending toward a much looser style than in recent years.

Forward Emi Buendía has enjoyed a hot start with 0.49 xG/90 and could present the best chance once again for Aston Villa to score.

The possibility that Villa could divert the ball from City’s feet might make any regulation Over bet a trap, even with all the City scoring that’s happened lately. City has often stumbled early during away games this year, mainly against Crystal Palace.

2H Over might be the play, though

City leads the EPL with a 2.2-goal average in the second half. Opposing defenses seem to be wilting against them late. Surprising.

Villa has coughed up 1.2 goals per second half, ranking 15th.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction

Aston Villa 1-3 Manchester City

Despite what I said above, I’m dismissing the notion that Villa might be able to contain City. However, I’m not suddenly going to blindly predict four-plus goals against a capable Villa club that’s better than their 19th-place showing and can slow things down.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City Best Bets

➕ Over 2.5 Goals in 2nd Half (+210) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Lofty? Probably, but as we’ve seen, even Man City’s second string can trample defenses late.

Villa’s home possession strength likely will only last for the first half. Then, in the second 45-minute batch, City will wear them down.

➕ Multiple Correct Scores: 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 (+300) at BetMGM

WAGER: 1 Unit

I’ll try to get more money out of what’s essentially a super-juiced Man City moneyline bet. Villa’s solid possession stats should allow them to hang around to net a goal.

➕ PARLAY: Over 2.5 2H Goals & Correct Score 1:3 (+1650) at BetMGM

WAGER: 0.5 Units

BetMGM doesn’t allow Multiple Correct Scores in its One Game Parlay feature, but I’m rolling with my score pick and the trend of City piling on in the second half.

➕ Jack Grealish Anytime Goal Scorer (+320) at BetMGM

WAGER: 0.5 Units

Given City’s packed schedule with two matches this week and their first Champions League draw coming Tuesday, Pep will want to rotate his forwards a bit. Haaland might not come out, but Phil Foden and/or Julián Álvarez might yield to Jack Grealish for a spell.

The former Villan has lost some steam with the arrivals of Haaland and Álvarez but still boasts the ability to drive into defenses with authority and precision.