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Chelsea vs Tottenham Predictions | EPL Matchweek 2 Odds & Best Bets | Premier League Picks

8:55 pm AEST 10/8/22
Jorginho Chelsea 2022-23
Chelsea are looking to protect their excellent recent record against the north London team when they meet at Stamford Bridge

Entering Week 2, Chelsea and Tottenham sit tied on top of the table with six other clubs after winning their opening matches against Everton and Southampton.

The two London clubs meet at Stamford Bridge for their 156th head-to-head meeting, which the Blues hold a 70-47 advantage over Tottenham, with 38 draws.

Last season Chelsea finished in third place, just three points above Tottenham, in the EPL table. However, the Spurs did end their campaign with six more losses (22-5-11) than the Blues (21-11-6).

Chelsea held the edge in both goals for (76) and against (33) for a plus-43 differential, compared to Tottenham (69/40), who finished with a plus-29 goal differential.

The Blues have won each of the previous five meetings between the clubs. In fact, Tottenham has been unable to defeat Chelsea since Jan. 8, 2019.

Will Spurs continue their losing streak against Chelsea? First, let’s look at current betting lines to find the best bets and predict the match's outcome.

Chelsea vs. Tottenham Odds

  • 3-way Handicap: Chelsea (+115) | Tottenham (+240) | Draw (+230) 

  • Draw No Bet: Chelsea (-190) / Tottenham (+135)

  • Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-120) / Under 2.5 (-115)

Chelsea vs. Tottenham odds are current as of Monday, Aug. 8, at 10 a.m. EST on BetMGM Sportsbook.

Betting lines opened with Chelsea listed as solid home favorites against Tottenham with the expectation for a low-scoring match.

That said, I would expect the odds to drift closer based on how Tottenham performed in their opening match against Southampton, which could make the Blues a value later in the week.

There is not much value in picking a straight winner unless you feel strongly about a Draw No Bet wager on Tottenham. It will be best to dig into prop bets and combination wagers in order to find value. 

Chelsea vs Tottenham Betting Tips

Chelsea’s record at Stamford Bridge

Chelsea has lost just 12 matches at Stamford Bridge over the last three seasons combined (57 matches).

In fact, the Blues have not been defeated at home by Tottenham since April 1, 2018, and have earned a result in 19 of their previous 20 meetings.

Shots On Goal advantage to Chelsea

The Blues averaged 5.6 shots on target per match last season compared to Tottenham’s 5.2.

However, Spurs’ forward Harry Kane led Tottenham with 51 shots on goal (Son Heung-Min, 49) during the 2021-22 campaign, whereas Mason Mount led Chelsea with just 29.

For those wondering, Raheem Sterling posted 28 shots on goal last season for Manchester City. 

Chelsea is very methodical on offense, leading the Premier League in dribbles per game last season with an 87.6 pass percentage (second). The Blues lack a traditional striker and move the ball around, waiting for a defensive breakdown instead of hunting for opportunities for a specific player.

Tottenham has made significant additions to their roster in Richarlison and Ivan Perišić. However, Spurs are a club built around two primary goal scorers, even though they play a possession-focused strategy. That said, Tottenham recently managed four goals against Southampton in Week 1 without Kane or Son contributing beyond one assist.

Since the start of 2022, Hotspur midfielder Dejan Kulusevski has led the Premier League in assists. The 22-year-old will be essential to Tottenham’s success against the Blues.

Tottenham looks to have the edge offensively in this match. However, Kalidou Koulibaly and Thiago Silva are a formidable duo on the back line in front of Édouard Mendy for Chelsea, who can shut down elite opposition.

Does history suggest the Over or Under?

Historical data suggests this match should result in a low total. For example, during the last 10 meetings between Chelsea and Tottenham, the final score eclipsed 2.5 goals just twice.

Over that same period, each club combined for nine clean sheets, with seven of those occurring over the last six fixtures.

However, Spurs reinforced their offense and enter the showdown with a more formidable attack than in past seasons. As a result, I expect a higher-scoring match than in previous fixtures while each club works to find its top form.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction

Chelsea 2, Tottenham 1

Thomas Tuchel will have another week to fine-tune the Blues' offense heading into their match with Tottenham. More importantly, this will give Sterling more time to adjust to playing with the entire first team.

I expect Chelsea to look sharper on offense, even with their need to add a central striker or midfield presence. After all, even though Tottenham won their first match handily, they did need to come from behind to achieve it.

Tottenham may struggle to get into a rhythm during the Stamford Bridge match, but Antonio Conte’s offense is too talented to be completely shut down. 

I am predicting Chelsea to take three points at home in a hard-fought match, but I would not be surprised if we ended up with a draw at two goals each.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Best Bets

➕Draw & Over 1.5 Total Goals (+333) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 unit

A solo wager for Over 2.5 total goals can be made for -120, but there is far more value in betting a combination that covers a 1:1 or 2:2 result.

I expect both clubs to score, so lowering the match total to 1.5 allows for more flexibility while still returning a solid profit.

➕Chelsea Win By Exactly One Goal (+290) at BetMGM

WAGER: 1 unit

My first wager for a draw is about value, but Chelsea does have a slight edge as the home favorite.

A wager for the Blues to earn three points on a close is well within reach and worth pairing with our previous bet at +290. 

The combination will limit your profit upside, but the strategy is a worthwhile hedge that covers two more high percentage outcomes (1:0 and 2:1).