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Mexico World Cup odds: Bookmakers give verdict on El Tri's chances of winning World Cup 2022

04:45 GMT+4 18/11/2022
Alexis Vega Mexico Sweden 2022
What are El Tri's chances of going all the way at the tournament in Qatar?

Mexico's appearance at the 2022 World Cup maintains their record of reaching every tournament since USA '94.

El Tri find themselves under pressure to impress in Qatar ahead of hosting the competition in 2026, alongside their neighbours the US and Canada.

However, despite the solid streak of consistently making it to the World Cup, Gerardo Martino's side have bowed out at the last-16 stage at each of the previous seven tournaments.

Despite boasting talented squads that can dominate at continental level, Mexico have struggled to break the barrier of really threatening the established order. Could this be their year?

Mexico World Cup odds to win

Despite their issues on the world stage, Mexico have reached three of the past four CONCACAF Gold Cup finals, winning two, and losing out to the United States in 2021.

Martino's charges finished second in CONCACAF qualifying, behind Canada on goal difference, and he can call on a host of Europe-based stars in Qatar including Andres Guardado, Raul Jimenez, Edson Alvarez and Hirving Lozano.

Though they have a talented roster, they are ranked as outsiders to achieve an unlikely World Cup win, with Ned’s rating their pre-tournament prospects of ultimate victory as a $101 chance.

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Mexico World Cup fixtures

Mexico begin their 2022 World Cup campaign against Poland on November 22 in Doha before a huge showdown with Argentina on November 26 in Lusail. They end their Group C run against Saudi Arabia, also in Lusail, on November 30.

El Tri have never faced Saudi Arabia before in World Cup action, with their last competitive meeting with Poland coming in the 1978 World Cup, where they lost 3-1.

However, their rivalry with Argentina runs much deeper: the Albiceleste knocked them out of the 2006 and 2010 tournaments at the last-16 stage.

Mexico route to World Cup final

Argentina are heavily fancied to top Group C in Qatar with Mexico likely to fight it out for second place with Robert Lewandowski's Poland.

However, they have strong pedigree for securing second spot in the group, after clinching it in the past four World Cups.

Round of 16

If Mexico do manage to top Group C, they will face the runners-up in Group D, likely to be either Denmark or Australia.

Second place in Group C pits them against the winners of Group D, which is odds on to be defending champions France.


A place in the last eight would be a first for Mexico since they hosted the World Cup back in 1986.

As group winners they would likely meet the winners of Group A — potentially either Senegal or the Netherlands — with second place meaning a clash with England, if they top Group B.


Beyond a quarterfinal would be uncharted territory for Mexico and they could face Germany, Spain or Brazil as group winners and any side from four four, out of Group F and H.


A run to the final could mean facing Argentina for the second time in the tournament with France a remaining option, if they win the group.